What's with Mali?

It's a question I've been asking myself for a couple weeks. In 16 days Mali has gone from a transitioning but steady democracy to a divided and virtually leaderless mess. If you haven't been following the situation, on March 21st a group of soldiers led by Captain Amadou Sanogo (pictured) and other low-ranking officers stormed the presidential palace and state media in a successful, but not well planned, coup.This despite the fact that elections were scheduled in April. The leaders of the coup have set up a shaky military junta and have promised elections and better management of the fight against rebels in the north.

Fifteen days after the coup, Mali's new leaders have failed spectacularly at their goals. The rebels in the north took Kidal, Gao, and Timbuktu (towns they've never before been able to take in three previous rebellions) giving them control of the northern half of the country. Today they declared independence and have called their new state Azawad. On the plus side, they have announced a 'unilateral ceasefire' and declared their intention not to advance farther south. The international community and regional states have issued statements against recognition of Azawad. The rebels are a combination of Tuareg (Tamajaq) nationalists in the form of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), and at least two groups of radical islamists: Al Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) and Ansar Dine-a radical group new to Mali led by al-Din Ag Ghaly. The islamists (mujahideen) are not in favor of Azawad. Their goal is to spread Sharia law and radical theology throughout Mali.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), determined to take a hard line against the coup leaders, placed heavy sanctions on Mali early this week. The regional body also put a 2,000-man force on standby either to restore the former President Amadou Toumani Toure (ATT) to power or possibly to counter the rebel gains. No one is sure where, exactly, ATT is. Reports immediately after the coup put him outside Bamako, the capitol, with a company of elite but loyal 'Red Berets.'

From a humanitarian perspective, the situation is also terrible. Aid agencies have pulled all personnel from northern Mali despite a serious and worsening hunger crisis. (The hunger situation existed before the coup and rebel takeover.) April through August is traditionally 'hunger season' in the Sahel. The rains will come but until the harvest in August there will be less and less food. This is compounded by a poorer than usual harvest last August.

So that's what's happening. What next? For now, everyone (international community, ECOWAS, rebels, military junta) seem to be reacting to the new developments and thousands of refugees are fleeing northern Mali for points south and east.